UFC 195: Main card writers picks

UFC 195 is almost upon us and as well as a welterweight title fight between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit, there is arguably a number one contenders heavyweight bout between Stipe Miocic and Andrei Alovski.

Abel Trujillo vs Tony Sims

PG – “Despite being on a two fight losing skid Trujillo is a seasoned competitor. His two recent losses came to Tony Ferguson and Gleison Tibau who are no mugs. I see him getting back to winning ways against Tony Sims who in fairness hasn’t fought the same calibre of opponent in the UFC as Trujillo.

Trujillo by decision”

Jimbo – this fight should, if nothing else be entertaining. Both guys are KO artists and this fight will most likely end within the distance. There aren’t many people I would pick in a straight up firefight with Abel Trujillo, and Tony Sims isn’t one of them. Trujillo has a ceiling due to his poor grappling, but Sims is not the man to expose that. These two will slug, and I think Trujillo hits harder.

Trujillo by TKO

Diego Brandao vs Brian Ortega

PG – “Yes Brian Ortega is undefeated but can he survive the early onslaught from Brandao, who is also a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt. Not keen to be remembered for his loss against Conor McGregor Brandao put on an aggression clinic against his most recent opponent Kutsunori Kikuno, getting the victory on his opponent’s home soil by TKO in under 30 seconds. I’m looking for the same again from Brandao to derail Ortega’s momentum in the UFC.

Brandao by TKO”

Jimbo – this one is pretty difficult to call. High things were expected of Ortega, but he failed a drug test after his first UFC victory and then beat Thiago Tavares in his comeback. With stricter drug tests, and a lack of name opposition on his record, I just can’t justify picking him against a seasoned competitor like Brandao, who has some great wins on his record already, yet. Ortega may well do it, but picking it would be pie in the sky at this point.

Brandao by Decision

Albert Tumenov vs Lorenz Larkin

PG – “Tumenov only has one loss in his last 13 fights which came via decision. 10 wins in those last 13 were by KO or TKO. Tumenov is also a Russian hand to hand fighting champion. Larkin has won his last two fights by TKO and this fight is sure to have fireworks written all over it. But Tumenov has the better pedigree in my opinion and the more likely to get the finish based on his record.

Tumenov by KO”

Jimbo – in a recurring theme of this card, this is a very close fight between two strikers who are finishers. I’m gonna go with the momentum of Larkin, who since dropping down to Welterweight has been revitalised with two performance of the night finishes. Despite finishing most of their combined opponents, these guys tend to not get finished, so I’m anticipating 15 minutes of fun kickboxing in the cage

Larkin by Decision

Stipe Miocic vs Andre Arlovski

PG – “Arlovski took a decision against Frank Mir recently but before that was in serious bother from Travis Browne before pulling the victory out the bag with a KO victory. Stipe most recently fought and defeated granite chinned Mark Hunt by TKO which is no mean feat. If Stipe can keep his chin protected he could easily take a decision victory against Arlovski.

Miocic by decision.”

Jimbo – all good things come to an end and this is no different. Arlovski’s resurgence is overblown quite a bit – seriously, take away a flash KO of Travis Browne, we have a controversial “win” over Brendan Schaub, a horrific “win” over Frank Mir and a KO over non TRT Bigfoot Silva. Miocic stood with JDS for 5 rounds and has taken Mark Hunt’s shots, so Arlovski isn’t pulling out a flash KO, his only hope against the younger, more athletic, better wrestler and fresher Stipe Miocic. Miocic is going to win here and win big.

Miocic by TKO

Robbie Lawler vs Carlos Condit

“Have the recent wars that Lawler has taken part in finally have taken it’s toll or will it be business as usual for Lawler? Will ring rust be an issue for Condit who has been out of action for some time? These are the two issues for me that will determine the outcome of this fight. If Condit is sharp and firing on all cylinders he has the skill set to defeat Lawler. If Lawler on the other hand continues his rampage through the welterweight division and shows no lasting effects from his recent wars then he could take the fight. I can’t choose and have resorted to tossing a coin.

Condit by decision.”
Jimbo – in a card populated with close bouts between explosive strikers, this is the cream of the crop. This one will not go to the ground. Condit’s chin is too good, his cardio over 5 rounds is too good and his diversity of striking and relentless pace will prove to be Lawler’s undoing and we will have a new champion. I don’t think anyone not called GSP can beat Condit over a 5 round fight.

Condit by Decision